Is 3D TV Here To Stay?

In the keynote speech at Panasonic Convention 2010, Bill Foster from Futuresource Consulting presented a persuasive argument in favour of 3D TV, and I happen to agree with him (for the most parts). The images below contain the highlights of the event, which are relatively self-explanatory.

3D The Real Deal? 3D, is this the “Real Deal”?

  • There have been several attempts to launch 3D TVs
  • All have failed
  • A key reason… the technology wasn’t there
  • This time it’s different, thanks to digital
  • Digital Cinema makes it viable to screen 3D movies
  • Cinemagoers are voting for 3D with their feet
3D Cinema Drivers for 3D: Cinema

  • Avatar now the biggest grossing movie ever… much of the revenue has come from the Avatar 3D version
  • When given a choice, people choose 3D
  • Hollywood producing increasing numbers of new 3D titles, and also re-releasing 2D blockbusters in 3D
3D Home Video Drivers for 3D: Home Video

  • Blu-ray the perfect vehicle for delivering 3D to the home
  • High capacity and able to carry 2 high-quality Full HD video streams
  • Video-on-demand and downloads will follow
3D Market Forecast 1
3D Market Forecast 2
3D Broadcast Drivers for 3D: Broadcast

  • Only a limited number of 3D titles will be released on Blu-ray in the first 12-18 months
  • Consumers will look for alternative sources of 3D content
  • Pay-TV operators interested in 3D as premium event-driven experience, e.g. sports, movies, music
  • Orange, France has conducted several trials including Roland Garros tennis tournament
  • Sky had a high-profile public event last month with live Premier League soccer match shown on polarised displays in 9 pubs across the UK
  • Sky has announced it will launch a service to the home later this year

The majority of us who are in the know are aware that 3D is nothing new. It is in fact older than our great-grandparents, and the reason for its continued failure was due to a number of factors. The primary obstacle however was the analogue domain, as it was difficult to capture, edit, master and display large sequences of 3D via film without inducing any serious adverse effects to the audience.

The method of perception was also limited to linear polarized filters and anaglyph 3D, which failed to win the hearts and minds of the mass audience. Furthermore, it was not possible to produce high-quality 3D on consumer grade-CRTs due to flicker and limited resolution among other factors.

The ColorCode system widely used in the US and recently used by Channel 4 to promote 3D is an improved version of the anaglyph, but even such undertaking failed to produce the level of quality required to satisfy the average consumer.

As time flowed, the thrust for 3D did not diminish, but the hardware simply was not capable until now. Between 2005 and 2009, we’ve witness numerous technological transformations across multiple fields. Flat panels became widely accepted, GPUs for the first time were able to compute general purpose coding (limited maybe but a step in the right direction to help reduce rendering time), cinemas upgraded the age-old mechanical film to digital (and enabled rich digital contents), and so forth. It is the combination of such technologies and the quality of the content which can be created that is powering the re-imagined 3D dream.

Note: This is the first of our 4-part article series which looks into 3D TV technology. In our next article, we’ll outline the 3 key challenges hindering 3D uptake.

7 comments

  1. at last a serious analysis for the 3d phainomenon from a site

    thank you

  2. Yeah, 3D is great…. £100 for a pair of shutter specs. Who’s gonna hand those to a 2 year old and ask them to site quietly and watch a 3D movie…. Or for that matter, who’s gonna have a few spare pairs lying around, should anyone drop by to watch a movie. Sony, or for that matter any other manufacturer, need to wake up the harsh reality that very few people will take this on. The stats mean nothing when people need to part with cash…

  3. I understand your concern and plenty of others readers have also stated similar views, but please bare in mind that the current 3D sets are aimed at the elites with deep pockets and enthusiasts (akin to the early flat-panels and HDTVs). It is in no way targeted at the average (middle-class) family. So anyone who can afford such displays can certainly afford additional pairs of glasses.

    The sole-reason for ASG’s high price tag is due to the fact that it was never sold in large volumes to the consumer before. Since its birth, it was limited to very few Cinemas (IMAX mostly) and professional bodies (including the military). So of cause it will be expensive. But as technology evolves, it will become cheap and affordable (which does depends on its success).

  4. In 2-3 years when 3D enters the entry-level Mid-rage sector, the prices of the glasses will become highly affordable (and may even compare to disposables).

    I believe I have covered this topic on Part 2 of the report, so look-out for it .^-^.

  5. Thanks, I see your points. I like to think I am an early adoptor of technology (my first DVD player was £300, reduced from £500! Was also one of the first Sky Digital customers after enjoying analogue for years. My first LCD TV was prior to the HD Ready badging and changed to Virgin Media HD at the earliest opportunity, along with a shiny new LCD HD TV. Although I wouldn’t say I fall into any “elite” or possibly “middle-class” consumer groups.

    But it’s affordability that will help make 3D a success, not availability. There are still a lot of people out there still to make the jump to HD. Many have HD ready TVs, but not HD content (Sky, Virgin, Blu-Ray or games consoles). The fact that over half the households in the UK have HD ready TVs, doesn’t necessarily make HD a success.

    Also, there are still personal “health” issues with 3D – limited or restriced vision (lazy eyes, etc), motion sickness, after effects, etc. Until all of this is ironed out, it’s not going to convince people.

    It will make very interesting reading to see how developments unfold – so I will be keen to read your updates on this site, Neilo!

  6. Yes, you’re quite right. But getting 3D to work is a difficult process and both LCD and Plasma have certain disadvantages that impact the over-all 3D experience.

    Today’s LCD still suffer from prolonged pixel latency, high-hold time and limited viewing angles. To date, the only LCD mode to become immune to such disadvantages (excluding high-hold time) is IPS (more accurately, H-IPS and IPS-Pro), which was by design so it wasn’t too difficult. However, it does have rather poor black levels, which was why the majority of manufactures chose VA instead of IPS (some time ago). However, maintaining pixel latency below 8ms (120Hz) across the entire gray-scale spectrum on a VA based panel is rather difficult (not to mention improving viewing angles and reducing hold-time by implementing highly accurate MCFI).

    Panasonic on the other hand had to redesign the underlying technology to enable rich 3D experience. They had to develop a new phosphor and reverse the rendering process. They also had to eliminate internal reflection.

    So the cost involved in R&D was huge, which has to be repaid along with profit. So it is not possible to keep it affordable (like Game Consoles) because apart from the Glasses, they have no other means of income. Some many use the Viera system or buy a replacement remote, but that’s hardly going to fill the pot.

  7. This is always a problem with semi and fully closed products. Once it’s sold, that is it. Hopefully they’ll find a way around it. (e.g. on-line games, movies etc.)

    As for the health issue, it’s in no way different to the norm. Everything we use today can potentially damage our health. Even our environment contain toxins and dangerous particles that can seriously damage our health (and sometime beyond repair via conventional medicine). It’s up to the individuals to govern their lives IMO. But sometimes, it cannot be helped.

    PS: People these days hardly take health warnings seriously. I still listen to my Sony DMP above recommended levels.